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Nested Monte Carlo Expression Discovery vs Genetic Programming for Forecasting Financial Volatility

Abstract : We are interested in discovering expressions for financial prediction using Nested Monte Carlo Search and Genetic Programming. Both methods are applied to learning from financial time series to generate nonlinear functions for market volatility prediction. The input data, that is a series of daily prices of European S&P500 index, is filtered and sampled in order to improve the training process. Using some assessment metrics, the best generated models given by both approaches for each training sub-sample, are evaluated and compared. Results show that Nested Monte Carlo is able to generate better forecasting models than Genetic Programming for the majority of learning samples.
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Preprints, Working Papers, ...
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https://hal-univ-paris10.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02489115
Contributor : Sana Ben Hamida <>
Submitted on : Monday, February 24, 2020 - 11:59:00 AM
Last modification on : Wednesday, September 23, 2020 - 4:31:31 AM

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  • HAL Id : hal-02489115, version 1

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Sana Ben Hamida, Tristan Cazenave. Nested Monte Carlo Expression Discovery vs Genetic Programming for Forecasting Financial Volatility. 2020. ⟨hal-02489115⟩

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